DRAM和NAND，涨疯了！

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing memory shortage in the DRAM market, driven by increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers and rising demand for artificial intelligence applications [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major cloud service providers are increasing their capital expenditures, with Amazon raising its budget from $118 billion to $125 billion, and further increases expected in 2026 [5]. - Samsung Electronics has paused DDR5 DRAM contract pricing, leading to a ripple effect among other manufacturers, which is expected to delay contract price announcements until mid-November [2][3]. - The DRAM spot prices have surged, with DDR5 prices more than doubling since late September, resulting in a 102% increase from $7.68 to $15.5 per 16Gb chip [4]. Group 2: Price Trends - Predictions indicate that DDR5 prices will experience a "triple increase" from Q4 2025 to H1 2026, with quarterly increases expected between 30% and 50%, potentially reaching nearly $30 per 16Gb chip by early 2026 [4][6]. - DDR4 prices are also rising, with DDR4 16Gb module prices surpassing $25, and specific models reaching $27 due to limited supply [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Implications - The memory market is shifting towards a seller's market, with significant price increases across various memory types, including a 60% monthly increase for mainstream DDR4 8Gb modules and a 40% increase for DDR3 4Gb modules [5]. - The supply chain is experiencing structural capacity shifts as suppliers prioritize high-margin products like DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), exacerbating the supply shortage [6].