【2025年三季度报点评/旭升集团】25Q3业绩同比高增,储能+出海步入收获期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in Q3, particularly in net profit and non-recurring net profit, indicating potential growth opportunities in the storage and overseas markets [3][10]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, revenue was 3.226 billion yuan, down 1.48% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 300 million yuan, down 7.16% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 268 million yuan, down 5.83% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 1.13 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.41% and 7.64% respectively; net profit attributable to shareholders was 99 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 70.43% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.5% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 21.66%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year; the net profit margin was 9.30%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 10.51%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points year-on-year; in Q3, the expense ratio was 11.80%, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 1.46 and 3.36 percentage points respectively [7]. - Q3 2025 financial expenses amounted to 30.69 million yuan, an increase of approximately 48 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [7]. Market and Client Insights - Tesla delivered 497,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, reflecting year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.89% and 29.41% respectively, indicating a correlation between the company's performance and the sales fluctuations of major clients [4]. Strategic Developments - The company’s storage business generated approximately 300 million yuan in revenue in H1 2025, showing significant year-on-year growth; the Mexico factory commenced production in June 2025, securing important client orders through OTS samples [8]. - The company is expanding its product matrix from traditional aluminum alloys to high-strength magnesium alloys and composite materials, focusing on lightweight components for humanoid robots, which positions it well for future growth [9]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 455 million, 556 million, and 683 million yuan respectively, reflecting a competitive industry landscape; however, the growth in storage and overseas markets, along with humanoid robot developments, supports a "buy" rating [10].