【2025年三季度报告点评/拓普集团】25Q3业绩短期承压,静待“液冷+机器人”双赛道兑现

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a revenue increase but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [2][8]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 20.928 billion yuan, up 8.14% year-on-year; however, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.967 billion yuan, down 11.97% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 7.994 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 12.11% and 11.53%, respectively; net profit for the same period was 672 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.65% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 19.20%, down 1.97 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.40%, down 2.15 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cost Structure - The expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 9.08%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points year-on-year; in Q3 2025, the expense ratio was 8.69%, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 0.12 and 0.33 percentage points, respectively [4]. - Financial expenses in Q3 2025 amounted to 40.84 million yuan, an increase of 55.52 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [5]. Market Dynamics - The company's revenue trends align with the sales performance of downstream customers, with notable sales figures from major clients such as A customer (497,000 units, up 7.4% year-on-year) and Geely (761,000 units, up 42.52% year-on-year) [6]. Business Development - The company secured 1.5 billion yuan in orders for its thermal management business in H1 2025, expanding into sectors like liquid cooling and energy storage [7]. - The company has also received product designations for global models from BMW and N-Car, indicating a strong foothold in the international market [7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to intense industry competition and a decline in profitability in Q3 2025, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down to 2.813 billion, 3.698 billion, and 4.650 billion yuan, respectively [8]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a "buy" rating, supported by its thermal management orders and new product designations, which are expected to drive future growth [8].