星巴克中国，还是卖了

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has sold the controlling stake of its China retail business to local capital, Boyu Capital, marking a strategic shift towards localization and leveraging local management expertise to drive growth [3][6][27]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The joint venture formed with Boyu Capital will see Boyu acquire up to 60% equity, while Starbucks retains 40% and continues to hold brand and intellectual property rights [3]. - The transaction is based on a valuation of approximately $4 billion for the joint venture, which is debt-free and cash-free [3]. - Starbucks anticipates the overall value of its China retail business to exceed $13 billion, factoring in the sale proceeds, retained equity, and future licensing fees [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Valuation - Starbucks operates around 7,800 to 8,000 stores in China, with annual revenues estimated at approximately $3 billion [8]. - Bidders, including Boyu, based their offers on a projected EBITDA of $400 to $500 million for 2025, with common bidding multiples around 10× EBITDA, leading to a valuation range of $4 to $5 billion [10]. - The valuation perspective is mixed; while a 10× EBITDA multiple is not uncommon for strong consumer brands, it is perceived as a discount compared to Starbucks' global valuation metrics [11][13]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Shift - Starbucks entered China in 1999 and rapidly expanded, positioning itself as a premium coffee experience [15]. - The company faced challenges from local competitors and a decline in market share from over 30% to as low as 14% between 2019 and 2022 [17]. - Recent strategic adjustments include price reductions, SKU simplification, and a focus on digitalization and local product development, culminating in the decision to sell a majority stake to local investors [20][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Comparisons - The partnership with Boyu is expected to enhance operational efficiency, drawing parallels with successful local management transitions seen in McDonald's and Yum China [22][23]. - Key factors for success will include maintaining brand integrity, effective management of store assets, and long-term capital investment for upgrades and digitalization [23]. - The effectiveness of this model will depend on how well Boyu can balance local agility with Starbucks' global brand standards [24][27].