Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股IPO·2025-11-04 07:24Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that excluding tariff impacts, inflation is close to the 2% policy target, and the trend of a cooling labor market remains unchanged, supporting the logic for interest rate cuts [1][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline prediction for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, driven by the ongoing cooling of the labor market [3][11]. - The September dot plot indicates that most committee members view rate cuts as the default option, with no signs of improvement in the labor market [5]. - Despite Fed Chair Powell's hawkish signals, the consensus reflected in the dot plot still points towards rate cuts, as there is no evidence of labor market improvement [5][11]. Group 2: Impact of Government Shutdown - Even if the government shutdown ends next week, the incremental data available to the Fed before the December meeting is likely to be weak, affecting employment reports for October and November [6][7]. - The reliability of data as a signal will be diminished due to the government shutdown, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [7]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Looking beyond 2025, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the policy path will be more dispersed with numerous intersecting factors influencing it [9]. - The recent announcement by Amazon regarding layoffs due to AI highlights the potential for a weakening labor market despite improved productivity, suggesting lower neutral interest rates [9]. - The market's pricing around terminal rates has been fluctuating around 3%, but significant uncertainty exists around this level [9].