存储芯片“严重短缺”，DRAM和DDR涨价“势不可挡”，瑞银上调三星和SK海力士目标价

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip industry is facing a "severe shortage," with UBS predicting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% or more in DDR memory contract prices by Q4 2025, and this supply shortage is expected to last at least until the end of 2026, with price increases likely extending into Q1 2027 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The storage chip industry is entering a period of "severe shortage," driven by strong demand and limited capacity expansion, pushing DRAM prices into a robust upward cycle [3][4]. - UBS's latest industry survey indicates that negotiations for DDR memory contracts in Q4 2025 are showing positive momentum, with significant price increases expected across major categories [4][6]. - The report highlights that suppliers currently hold pricing power, with contract negotiations for server DDR5 showing a potential increase of 20% or more [4][10]. Group 2: Factors Driving Demand - The core factors driving the current price surge in storage chips include a structural supply-demand imbalance, with AI being a key variable [6][9]. - Strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by AI is a primary factor contributing to the shortage [6][9]. - The robust upgrade cycle of traditional servers is also contributing to increased demand for DRAM [7][9]. - Additional demand for enterprise SSDs due to shortages in AI and traditional HDDs is further exacerbating the situation [8][9]. Group 3: Supply Chain Implications - Limited wafer capacity is being prioritized for HBM production, leading to a squeeze in the supply of traditional DDR memory [9][10]. - UBS estimates that by the end of 2025, 20% of the industry's front-end DRAM capacity will be allocated to HBM production, increasing to 25% by the end of 2026 [9][10]. Group 4: Company Outlook - UBS has raised its financial forecasts and valuations for major memory chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in light of the industry's price uptrend [11]. - For SK Hynix, revenue and operating profit forecasts for 2026 have been increased by 3% and 5%, respectively, with 2027 forecasts raised by 9% and 16% [11]. - Samsung Electronics' revenue and operating profit forecasts for 2026 have been adjusted upward by 2% and 7%, respectively, with 2027 forecasts increased by 5% and 23% [11].