星巴克中国交易：激进的扩张，韩国的剧本，未决的根本问题

Core Insights - Starbucks is not exiting the Chinese market but is instead pursuing an aggressive expansion plan through a partnership with Boyu Capital, forming a joint venture valued at approximately $4 billion, retaining 40% ownership [5][6][9] - The company aims to open 20,000 stores in China over the next decade, with an expected total value exceeding $13 billion from this venture, including the value of remaining shares and licensing fees [6][9] - Starbucks faces significant competition in China, with local brands offering lower prices and fresher products, which has led to a decline in its product appeal [30][32][40] Expansion Strategy - The joint venture with Boyu Capital allows Starbucks to leverage local expertise while maintaining a degree of control over its brand and operations [5][6] - Starbucks plans to increase its store count significantly, with a target of 20,000 locations, which would require a substantial increase in revenue and store performance [6][7] - The partnership is seen as a way to navigate the competitive landscape in China, similar to strategies previously employed in South Korea [10][12] Financial Projections - Starbucks anticipates generating $6.6 billion in licensing fees over the next decade to meet its valuation expectations [7] - The current revenue from Starbucks China is approximately $3.15 billion, indicating a need for substantial growth to meet future targets [7][8] - The valuation of $4 billion for the joint venture is considered to be net of debt, raising questions about the actual equity value [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Starbucks is experiencing increased competition from local brands that offer lower prices and fresher ingredients, which has affected its market position [30][32] - The company has begun to implement strategies similar to those used in South Korea, including promotions and product diversification, to regain market share [20][21][28] - The overall coffee market in China is evolving, with local brands rapidly improving their product quality and customer appeal [32][34] Product Quality Concerns - There are concerns regarding the quality of Starbucks' coffee compared to local competitors, with some consumers perceiving other brands as superior [30][31][32] - Starbucks has historically relied on imported coffee beans, which has affected the freshness and flavor profile of its products [32][33] - The company is beginning to shift towards local sourcing and roasting to improve product quality and reduce costs [33][34]