UBS(US:UBS) 美股IPO·2025-11-05 13:15Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, it will force the government to refund approximately $140 billion in tariffs to importers, significantly impacting the short-term fiscal situation and potentially leading to a lower overall tax rate trade environment that could ultimately benefit the U.S. economy and stock market [1][4][13] Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling and Its Implications - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to quickly review the legality of most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for November 5 [4] - UBS estimates that if the tariffs are deemed illegal, the government may need to refund between $130 billion to $140 billion in tariff revenue, which would worsen the already challenging federal budget deficit situation, equating to 7.9% of the projected 2025 deficit [4][9] - The ruling could lead to market volatility in the short term, but if trade partners exercise restraint and avoid retaliation, the overall impact may be limited [4][17] Group 2: Financial Impact of Refunds - The estimated refund of $130 billion to $140 billion represents only 0.5% of the projected U.S. GDP for 2025, indicating a minimal stimulative effect on the economy [8] - However, this amount is significant for federal finances, as it constitutes 7.9% of the projected $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit for 2025, leading to substantial short-term fiscal pressure [9][10] - The loss of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a flexible tariff tool may weaken future federal tax revenues, potentially steepening the yield curve due to concerns over fiscal sustainability [10] Group 3: Corporate and Market Reactions - For U.S. companies that directly paid tariffs, receiving refunds would provide unexpected financial relief, particularly benefiting small companies with fewer than 500 employees [12] - While large publicly traded companies may also benefit from refunds, the direct costs of tariffs have not significantly impacted the earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 index, suggesting that the positive effects of refunds may be minimal at the index level [12] - A potential decrease in the overall effective tariff rate could enhance household purchasing power, support economic growth, and improve corporate earnings, while reduced inflationary pressures may provide the Federal Reserve with more room to lower interest rates, a favorable outcome for stock investors [13] Group 4: Rebuilding Tariff Barriers - UBS anticipates that the government will not allow the collapse of tariff barriers if the IEEPA tariffs are invalidated, instead utilizing other legal tools to rebuild them [14] - Possible options include the 1974 Trade Act's Sections 201 and 301, which are more traditional tools but require lengthy investigations, and the 1962 Trade Expansion Act's Section 232, which allows tariffs based on national security [15][16] - The government may initially use Section 122 to quickly restore some tariffs, but will eventually need to rely on more complex and legally sound tools like Sections 232 and 301 for broader tariff implementation [16] Group 5: Future Trade Relations - Limited retaliation from trade partners may lead to a better-than-expected overall economic impact, as countries may refrain from escalating tensions due to concerns over deeper economic damage [17] - During the 150-day window of Section 122, significant changes to the tariff landscape may not occur, but after this period, the government will lose the flexibility granted by the IEEPA, making trade policy more targeted [18] - Countries with long-standing trade surpluses with the U.S. are likely to become initial targets for investigations under Section 301, and if IEEPA tariffs are ruled illegal, the overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. may decrease, although disparities in tariff rates among countries could increase [19]