Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2025-11-06 10:31Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the U.S. Supreme Court's decision regarding tariff rulings remains closely contested, with a ruling expected in December 2025 or January 2026. The firm believes that even an unfavorable ruling may not fundamentally alter the tariff landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Court Proceedings and Predictions - Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius' team reported that during the oral arguments on November 5, 2025, most justices expressed skepticism about the president's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), leading to a market probability adjustment for maintaining tariffs from 40% to around 30% [2][3]. - The firm predicts that even if the court rejects IEEPA tariffs, the Trump administration could still implement similar tariffs through other legal avenues, resulting in an actual tariff rate decrease of only about 1 percentage point [2][5]. Group 2: Current Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - As of September, the government had collected approximately $89 billion in IEEPA tariffs, which is expected to rise to between $115 billion and $145 billion by the time of the court's ruling. The refund process for these tariffs could take several months, indicating that the economic impact of these tariffs will persist [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs notes that a court ruling does not equate to the end of tariffs, as the government has various alternative legal tools at its disposal to impose tariffs, including provisions from the Trade Act of 1974 and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [7][8]. Group 3: Judicial Dynamics and Key Justices - The internal dynamics of the court reveal a split, with four justices likely opposing the government and three supporting it, while two justices remain undecided. This indicates a highly competitive ruling process [2][6]. - Key swing votes are held by Justices Barrett and Chief Justice Roberts, with Barrett questioning the intent of Congress in granting broad tariff powers through IEEPA, and Roberts emphasizing that taxation is a core power of Congress, while acknowledging the importance of tariffs as a tool of foreign policy [6][7].