摩根大通：不止AI有“闭环”，美股也“闭环”了！企业裁员推高股价，股市走高刺激消费，消费强劲支撑业绩

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is trapped in a "reflexive" loop where cost-cutting by companies boosts stock prices, which in turn stimulates consumer spending, thereby supporting corporate performance. However, JPMorgan warns that this asset price-driven resilience is unsustainable, as declining savings rates and weak income expectations weaken consumer momentum. A stock market downturn could quickly turn the current "buffer" into an amplifier of economic decline [1][3][19]. Group 1: Economic Dynamics - Companies are cutting costs through layoffs to enhance efficiency, which in turn raises stock prices. This stock price increase stimulates consumer spending, creating a cycle that supports corporate performance and economic resilience [3][17]. - JPMorgan's analysis highlights a "strange decoupling" where a deteriorating labor market coexists with strong household wealth growth, particularly in the U.S. [3][4]. - The wealth effect, driven by rising stock prices, temporarily compensates for the slowdown in labor income growth, but this consumption resilience is unlikely to last [3][10]. Group 2: Wealth and Consumption - Household wealth in developed markets has surged, with U.S. household wealth increasing at an annualized rate of 14.8% over the past two quarters, driven by stock market gains [7][10]. - The wealth effect is crucial for supporting consumer spending; for every dollar increase in wealth, households tend to spend an additional 3.5 cents [10]. Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Savings - Consumer savings rates have dropped to unsustainable levels, with a decline of about one percentage point since the first half of 2024, indicating that consumers are depleting savings to maintain spending [13]. - Consumer confidence is low, with median expectations for nominal income growth falling below 2.5%, and 68% of surveyed households believe their income growth will not keep pace with inflation, marking the most pessimistic outlook since 1975 [13][16]. Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The current economic balance is fragile; if the wealth effect diminishes and companies begin layoffs, the stock market could shift from being a buffer to an amplifier of downward pressure on the economy [19]. - JPMorgan's basic scenario anticipates a gradual recovery in the labor market, which would validate the current consumption model, but acknowledges the increasing risk of sustained labor market weakness [18].