XIAOMI(HK:01810) 美股IPO·2025-11-06 12:27Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' market team identifies Xiaomi as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts and various operational challenges [1][5][9] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Short Selling - Hedge funds have increased their short positions on Xiaomi by 53% in the past week, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards caution ahead of the upcoming Q3 earnings report [3][9] - The overall selling pressure is dominated by pension funds and hedge funds, reflecting a bearish outlook on Xiaomi's stock [3][9] Group 2: Financial Performance and Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has lowered Xiaomi's 12-month target price from HKD 66 to HKD 56.5, a decrease of over 10%, citing rising storage chip prices, slowing AIoT growth, and delays in electric vehicle factory construction as key reasons [5][19] - The report predicts that Xiaomi's smartphone gross margin will decline to approximately 10% by 2026, with a cautious forecast of 1.73 million units shipped, reflecting only a 1% year-on-year growth [13][20] Group 3: AIoT and Electric Vehicle Business - AIoT growth is expected to slow down significantly, with projected revenue growth rates of 6% and 0% in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively, primarily due to high base effects in the Chinese market [14] - Xiaomi's electric vehicle business is seen as a core growth story, with expected deliveries of 390,000 units in 2025 and 800,000 units in 2026, despite the financial impact of vehicle purchase subsidies [16][17] Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Valuation - Despite the challenges, Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating on Xiaomi, highlighting the attractive risk-reward profile at current stock prices [21] - The long-term valuation model has been updated, with a bull case price of HKD 67.4, representing a 56% upside, and a bear case price of HKD 39.0, indicating a 10% downside [22]