KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 36氪·2025-11-06 13:45Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the price of Moutai, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics that have led to this change. The once-coveted status of Moutai as a "social currency" is diminishing as younger consumers prioritize different drinking experiences over traditional high-end liquor [5][16][18]. Price Decline of Moutai - The wholesale price of 53-degree Moutai has fallen below 1600 yuan, marking a historic low, down from a peak of around 3000 yuan in late 2021, representing a nearly 50% decrease in just four years [5][11]. - In early 2024, Moutai's price was stable at around 2900 yuan, but by April, it dropped to 2100 yuan, indicating a shift in market sentiment and consumer demand [9][11]. - By November 2024, the price had further declined to 1600 yuan, with reports of a 22% drop in high-end dining bottle opening rates [12][15]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The decline in Moutai's price reflects broader changes in the white liquor market, including increased production capacity and a shift in consumer preferences towards lower-alcohol and flavored beverages [7][16][22]. - Young consumers are moving away from the traditional image of Moutai as a status symbol, favoring a more casual drinking experience that emphasizes atmosphere over prestige [4][18]. - The perception of Moutai as a "liquid gold" has shifted, with consumers now viewing it as just another product rather than an investment or a symbol of status [18][23]. Supply and Inventory Issues - Moutai's production capacity has significantly increased, with an estimated output of 57,200 tons in 2023, projected to reach 67,200 tons by 2025, leading to an oversupply situation [22][23]. - The total inventory, including social circulation stock, is estimated to be around 700 million bottles, which has contributed to the price decline as the market adjusts to this excess supply [22][24]. - The traditional consumption scenarios for Moutai, heavily reliant on government and high-end business banquets, are diminishing due to regulatory changes and economic conditions, further impacting demand [22][26]. Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The entire white liquor industry is facing challenges, with many companies reporting high inventory levels and extended turnover days, indicating a slowdown in sales [25][26]. - Moutai is attempting to pivot towards "open bottle consumption" and targeting younger consumers, but these efforts have met with mixed results as younger demographics show little interest in high-alcohol products [26][27]. - The article concludes that while Moutai's price decline may be seen as a negative development for the brand, it could ultimately lead to a healthier market where genuine consumer demand drives sales rather than speculative investment [28][29].