Micron Technology(US:MU) 雷峰网·2025-11-07 06:31Core Viewpoint - The storage market is experiencing significant price fluctuations driven by the demand from the AI industry, leading to a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - The storage market has seen a phenomenon of "daily price changes," with distributors adjusting prices frequently due to market volatility [1]. - Major players like SanDisk and Micron have announced price increases for NAND Flash and DDR products, with potential hikes reaching 30% [2][3]. - The price of DDR4 memory has surged dramatically, with reports indicating increases of up to 1.5 times, reflecting a scarcity premium as it approaches obsolescence [11][12]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The AI industry's expansion is driving an exponential increase in storage demand, with AI servers requiring significantly more DRAM and NAND compared to traditional servers [4][5]. - The construction of data centers in the U.S. has surged, with investments exceeding $40 billion, indicating a strong correlation between AI demand and storage market growth [5][6]. - A self-reinforcing cycle of demand is emerging, where expectations of price increases lead to strategic stockpiling by buyers, further tightening supply [2][6]. Group 3: Market Structure and Future Outlook - The current supply adjustments by major manufacturers are lagging behind the rapid demand growth, creating a "capacity gap" between old and new generation products [8][10]. - The storage market is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025, with AI demand contributing over 40% of this growth [7][21]. - The market is in a "seller's cycle," with manufacturers controlling supply to maintain high prices, which is expected to continue until at least the end of 2026 [21][24]. Group 4: Impact on AI Server Market - AI server manufacturers face rising costs due to increased storage prices, but demand remains strong as hardware configurations are rigid and cannot be compromised [15][19]. - The cost of AI training servers is projected to rise by 3% to 5% due to storage price increases, but this has not deterred buyers from purchasing [16][19]. - The pricing mechanism in the industry is shifting, with contracts now being negotiated on a more frequent basis due to price volatility [18][19]. Group 5: Key Signals for Market Turning Point - The storage market's turning point may hinge on two key signals: the pace of AI capital investment in North America and the supply situation from manufacturers [22][24]. - Current market conditions suggest that unless there is a significant increase in production capacity or a slowdown in demand, prices are likely to remain elevated [22][24].