特斯拉：马斯克薪酬方案获股东通过，后续将如何发展？

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Tesla's CEO compensation plan, valued at $1 trillion, alleviates significant uncertainty surrounding the company, despite potential equity dilution. This development is expected to restore investor confidence and drive stock price recovery as Elon Musk shifts focus to advancing Tesla's high-tech projects [1]. Compensation Plan Structure - The CEO's compensation is divided into 12 tranches, which must be achieved over the next ten years to unlock the rewards. Each tranche is tied to specific market capitalization and operational milestones [2]. - The market capitalization requirement is clear: Tesla must reach the specified market cap and maintain it for six months [3]. Operational Milestones - The operational milestones include various adjusted EBITDA targets, starting from $50 billion and going up to $400 billion, along with cumulative vehicle delivery and autonomous driving user targets [4][6]. - Specific milestones include: 1. Adjusted EBITDA of $50 billion 2. Adjusted EBITDA of $80 billion 3. Adjusted EBITDA of $130 billion 4. Adjusted EBITDA of $210 billion 5. Adjusted EBITDA of $300 billion 6. Adjusted EBITDA of $400 billion 7. Cumulative vehicle deliveries of 20 million 8. 10 million FSD subscription users 9. 1 million Robotaxi vehicles 10. 1 million humanoid robots delivered [4][6]. Feasibility of Milestones - Achieving the adjusted EBITDA milestones is challenging but feasible, as traditional automakers like Toyota have surpassed $50 billion in EBITDA. Tesla's unique advantages, including its energy and storage business, position it well for growth [9]. - The electric vehicle market is still in its early stages, and Tesla is well-placed to capture significant growth potential as consumer preferences shift towards electric vehicles [9]. Financial Performance and Projections - For the first nine months of 2025, Tesla reported a net profit of $2.9 billion, down from $4.9 billion in the same period in 2024. The adjusted EBITDA for this period was $10.8 billion, suggesting a need for an average annual growth rate of approximately 51.5% to reach $400 billion in eight years [10]. - Tesla is close to achieving the cumulative delivery milestone of 20 million vehicles, having delivered approximately 8 million vehicles by September 2025. This requires an average annual growth rate of about 9.1% in vehicle sales over the next decade [12]. Challenges and Opportunities - The target of 10 million FSD subscription users is ambitious, assuming that 50% of delivered vehicles will subscribe to the service. This high-margin service is crucial for supporting EBITDA growth [13]. - The Robotaxi fleet expansion to 1 million vehicles presents challenges, including regulatory hurdles and the need for a comprehensive operational network [15][16]. - The humanoid robot delivery target of 1 million units is seen as achievable if the robots can effectively replace blue-collar jobs in warehouses [18]. Conclusion - Analysts believe that as long as the electric vehicle market rebounds, Tesla's operational milestones are attainable. The company holds a competitive edge in the electric vehicle sector, and the ten-year timeline allows for flexibility in adjusting strategies as market conditions evolve [20].