SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 雪涛宏观笔记·2025-11-09 13:37Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on economic data and its implications for global trade, particularly focusing on China's exports to the U.S. and the overall demand from the U.S. market [4][9]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Conditions - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, making it difficult to assess the U.S. economic fundamentals [4]. - As of October, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 25.1% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 1.8 percentage points compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization [4]. - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, reflecting a decline in economic sentiment among consumers [9]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics - China's exports of intermediate goods to the U.S. showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 18.5% in September, which is better than the 24.1% decline in consumer goods [4]. - Taiwan's exports to the U.S. surged by 49.7% in October, driven by a 138.2% increase in information, communication, and audio-visual products, indicating strong demand for technology-related goods [5]. - Mexico's automotive production and exports fell by 4% and 5.5% respectively due to U.S. tariffs, highlighting the negative impact of trade policies on regional exports [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current export data primarily reflects the third-quarter U.S. demand and has not yet captured the full impact of the government shutdown [9]. - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the prolonged shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by up to 2 percentage points, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [9]. - Overall, except for capital goods related to computing power, exports to the U.S. from various countries are expected to face downward pressure as U.S. demand weakens [9].