Meta Platforms(US:META) 美股研究社·2025-11-11 10:09Core Viewpoint - Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) has experienced a significant disconnect between its fundamentals and stock price following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, despite analysts maintaining a bullish outlook based on strong AI infrastructure deployment and business positioning [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $51.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, with Q4 revenue guidance set between $56 billion and $59 billion [4][15]. - Operating cash flow for the past three quarters totaled $79.586 billion, up 26% year-over-year, indicating strong financial health [6][11]. - Capital expenditures (CapEx) for the same period amounted to $48.3 billion, representing approximately 61% of operating cash flow, which is higher than Microsoft and Alphabet's ratios [7][8]. Market Reaction - Despite strong earnings, the stock price has declined, attributed to market concerns over increased infrastructure spending and a slowdown in stock buybacks, which analysts believe is an overreaction [4][8]. - Analysts noted that Meta's stock buybacks totaled $26.32 billion over the past three quarters, with remaining buyback authorization of $25.03 billion, but the buyback pace has slowed recently [8][10]. Growth Prospects - Analysts expect Meta's advertising business to maintain over 20% growth, justifying the capital expenditures [5][12]. - The company has signed multi-year third-party cloud service agreements worth approximately $40 billion, indicating strong market demand for its services [11][12]. Valuation - Meta currently has the lowest forward P/E ratio among major tech giants at 25.6 times, despite strong growth expectations [19][20]. - Analysts believe that the recent sell-off has led to an attractive valuation, with potential for double-digit growth in the future [24][22]. Risks and Concerns - There are concerns regarding the potential decline in return on investment (ROI) from capital expenditures if revenue growth does not keep pace, which could pressure profit margins and free cash flow [17]. - The company's effective tax rate surged to 87% due to a one-time non-cash tax expense of $15.93 billion, impacting GAAP earnings per share, but analysts view this as a non-recurring issue [11][12].