为何 Meta 财报后下跌是份 “早到的礼物”

Core Viewpoint - Meta's Q3 2025 performance shows mixed results, primarily impacted by a significant tax expense and increased capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, despite strong revenue growth in its core digital advertising business [1][4][26]. Financial Performance - Meta's Q3 revenue reached $51.2 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations by $1.8 billion, driven by rising average ad prices [6]. - Operating profit margin decreased from 43% in the same quarter last year to 40%, with costs rising 32% year-over-year, attributed to increased AI-related R&D spending [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.05, significantly below market expectations and down 83% year-over-year, primarily due to a one-time tax expense of $15.9 billion [7][26]. Advertising Business - Digital advertising, which constitutes 98% of total revenue, grew by 26% year-over-year, benefiting from a shift in ad spending from traditional channels to digital platforms [8]. - Average ad prices increased by 10%, with key markets like the U.S. and Canada growing by 13% and Europe by 19%, marking the highest growth in nearly five quarters [8]. Capital Expenditures - Meta updated its FY 2025 capital expenditure outlook, raising the lower end by $4 billion to a range of $70-72 billion, with Q3 capital expenditures nearing $20 billion, more than double from the previous year [11]. - Most capital expenditures are directed towards AI infrastructure, including new data centers and advanced chip procurement [12][13]. Valuation Analysis - Prior to the earnings report, Meta's P/E ratio was over 32, but after the valuation adjustment, it stands at 27, which is close to the current valuation of the S&P 500 [16][21]. - Analysts predict EPS growth of 22.90 in 2025 (down 4% due to tax expenses), 29.75 in 2026 (up 30%), and 33.35 in 2027 (up 12%) [19]. Risk and Outlook - Despite the challenges, Meta's fundamentals remain intact, with advertising prices continuing to rise and increased user engagement driven by AI-enhanced content recommendations [26]. - The company acknowledges risks related to high capital expenditures and reliance on digital advertising, which could impact cash flow and profitability if not managed properly [24].