Microsoft(US:MSFT) 美股IPO·2025-11-13 03:39Core Insights - OpenAI is facing a significant financial challenge, with its actual reasoning costs potentially being three times higher than publicly reported figures, leading to doubts about its business model sustainability and the profitability of the generative AI industry as a whole [1][4][10] Financial Discrepancies - Internal documents reveal that OpenAI's operational costs, particularly for model reasoning, are vastly underestimated, with expenditures on Azure exceeding $12.4 billion over seven quarters, and $8.67 billion in the first nine months of 2025 alone, compared to previous reports of $2 billion for 2024 and $2.5 billion for the first half of 2025 [7][8] - The revenue figures reported by OpenAI are significantly inflated; for instance, the revenue share paid to Microsoft suggests OpenAI's actual revenue for 2024 was at least $2.469 billion, while media reports estimated it between $3.7 billion and $4 billion [8][9] Complex Financial Relationships - The financial relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft is intricate, involving a 20% revenue share from OpenAI to Microsoft and vice versa, complicating revenue estimations and potentially leading to underestimations of OpenAI's total income [9][10] Industry Implications - The financial strain on OpenAI raises concerns about the viability of the entire generative AI sector, suggesting that if a leading player like OpenAI cannot achieve profitability, other companies in the space may face even greater challenges [10][11] - Current trends indicate that either operational costs must drastically decrease or customer pricing must significantly increase for the generative AI business model to become sustainable, yet no signs of such changes are evident [11]