国泰海通｜建材：水泥出海国别研究之赞比亚、马拉维

Core Insights - The article provides an in-depth analysis of the economic development, cement supply and demand situation, competitive landscape, profitability, and trend predictions for Zambia and Malawi [1] Economic Overview - Both Zambia and Malawi have low economic development levels, with Malawi facing a significant cement supply gap that necessitates imports from Zambia and other countries [2] - Zambia has a rich mineral resource base, particularly in copper and cobalt, with favorable foreign exchange conditions, while Malawi has experienced significant currency depreciation and some foreign exchange controls [2] Cement Supply and Demand - Malawi's cement production is insufficient, with an output of less than 500,000 tons against a demand of over 1.7 million tons, indicating a substantial supply gap [2] - Zambia is a dominant player in the local cement market, exporting cement clinker to Malawi and Zimbabwe to address local supply shortages [2][3] Competitive Landscape - Huaxin Cement is the largest cement producer in Zambia, with a production capacity of 1.77 million tons, accounting for approximately one-third of the market share [3] - In Malawi, only two companies are capable of producing cement, with Huaxin Cement expected to lead the market after commissioning its plant in September 2025, contributing 800,000 tons to the local capacity [3] Pricing and Profitability - Cement prices in Malawi are notably high at $200 per ton, positioning it among the highest price regions in sub-Saharan Africa [4] - Zambia's cement prices remain elevated, with Dangote's Q3 factory price nearing $110 per ton, benefiting from stable competition and regional price linkages [4] - Zambia's profitability is robust, with Chilanga expected to achieve over $20 million in net profit from a production capacity of 1.2 million tons in 2024, translating to a net profit of over $20 per ton [5] Future Outlook - The demand for cement in both Zambia and Malawi is expected to rise, while supply remains stable, suggesting that prices are likely to maintain high levels [6] - Huaxin Cement plans to expand its production capacity in both Zambia and Malawi by 2025 [6]