Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 中泰证券资管·2025-11-13 11:32Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that relying solely on historical performance data to select consistently excellent active equity funds is challenging, and understanding the reasons behind a fund's strong performance is more crucial than analyzing past results [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance Analysis - The article reviews the performance and distribution characteristics of active equity funds over the past decade, indicating that understanding the investment philosophy and framework is essential for investors [1]. - A sample of 466 funds was analyzed, focusing on those established before June 30, 2015, with performance benchmarks including over 60% of the CSI 300 or CSI 800 indices [2]. - The cumulative return distribution of active equity funds was examined over two periods: from October 2015 to September 2020 (a bullish market) and from October 2020 to September 2025 (a challenging market) [4]. Group 2: Return Distribution Characteristics - The distribution of fund returns is right-skewed, indicating that most funds cluster around lower return values, with a long tail on the right side representing a few extreme high performers [7]. - In the difficult market environment from October 2020 to September 2025, the right-skewed distribution is particularly pronounced, suggesting that most funds will tend to perform around the market average [7]. Group 3: Mean Reversion in Fund Performance - The analysis categorized funds into five performance tiers based on cumulative returns, revealing that only 16% of the top-performing funds from the first period remained in the top tier in the second period, while 27% of the lowest-performing funds improved to the top tier [10]. - The distribution of funds across performance tiers in the second period shows no clear persistence, indicating that historical performance is not a reliable indicator for future fund selection [11]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For most investors, attempting to pick the next star fund is discouraged; instead, understanding the underlying philosophy and maintaining conviction during tough times is recommended [13]. - Utilizing broad-based index funds with controlled tracking error is suggested as a more rational and lower-risk long-term investment strategy for those unwilling to invest time in active management [13].