Core Insights - The article outlines the ten major trends expected in the banking sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing a shift towards high-quality economic development and a more balanced credit supply-demand relationship [2][9]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Credit Allocation - The focus will shift from traditional quantity-based monetary control to a more nuanced approach, with M2 growth expected to decline from 9.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" to 6%-8% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - There will be a significant decrease in the proportion of real estate loans, dropping from approximately 40% in 2017 to around 0% by 2025, while loans for infrastructure, manufacturing, and green finance are expected to rise to over 70% of new credit [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Coordination and Risk Management - Enhanced coordination with fiscal and industrial policies is anticipated, utilizing policy tools to stimulate credit demand and mitigate credit costs for banks [3]. - The banking sector will focus on combating "involution" in competition, moving away from price wars to risk pricing and comprehensive service offerings [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Risk Control - The pressure to maintain reasonable interest margins and profits is expected to increase, with banks needing to balance loan volume and pricing while addressing credit costs [5]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will see a push for debt restructuring among real estate companies, with banks facing pressure to write down debts for problematic firms [6]. Group 4: Support for New Real Estate Models and Local Debt Resolution - The banking sector will explore financing systems for current housing sales, focusing on urban renewal and rental housing to meet demand [6]. - A significant issuance of local government bonds, estimated at 10 trillion yuan, is planned to replace hidden debts, with banks expected to participate in this process [7]. Group 5: Financial Stability and Capital Supplementation - A comprehensive financial safety net will be developed, with a focus on reducing the number of high-risk financial institutions [9]. - External capital supplementation will be necessary due to declining profit margins, with state-owned banks and smaller banks likely to receive fiscal injections [7][9].
中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：银行篇