白酒从底部反转了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the white wine sector, highlighting improvements in economic, policy, funding, and inventory aspects that contribute to the industry's potential growth [3][5]. Economic Improvement - In September 2024, profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 27% year-on-year, marking an economic low point, which corresponds to the lowest stock price of a specific liquor company at 99 yuan [3]. - Following this, a series of government policies were introduced to support the recovery of the real economy, leading to significant improvements compared to the September situation [3]. Policy Changes - In May 2025, a strict alcohol ban was implemented, which, while reasonable in policy, was executed excessively. This period corresponds to another low stock price of 107 yuan [3]. - The impact of this policy showed a month-on-month improvement, with a decrease of 80% in May-June and a reduction to 20% by September [3]. Fund Holdings - By the third quarter of 2025, the share of liquor in the top ten holdings of all funds dropped from 14.4% to 5%, indicating a historically low holding ratio [4]. - Most of this reduction is attributed to index funds, while active funds have shifted to other sectors, except for a few [4]. Inventory Situation - The inventory cycle for liquor in 2024 includes social inventory, dealer historical inventory, and scalper inventory, with a notable decline in scalper inventory due to falling market prices [4]. - As dealer historical inventory improves and market prices stabilize, consumer purchasing behavior is expected to shift positively [4]. Overall Market Outlook - The combination of economic, policy, funding, and inventory improvements provides a rationale for the anticipated rise in liquor prices [5]. - Economic conditions drive consumer demand, which in turn influences supply, leading to performance improvements that justify stock price increases [5].