英伟达 Q3 财报前瞻：利润率稳健，但中国市场遇挑战

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to maintain strong profitability and growth, with optimistic projections for future earnings and revenue growth, despite facing challenges in the Chinese market [4][8]. Financial Performance - Nvidia's adjusted EPS for the last quarter was $1.05, with total revenue of $46.74 billion, exceeding market expectations. For the upcoming quarter, adjusted EPS is projected to reach $1.25, a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase, while revenue is expected to be $54.8 billion, a 17% increase [1]. - Analysts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.0% for EPS and 20.2% for revenue over the next five years, indicating more than double growth in both metrics [4]. - The projected profit margin is expected to expand, with the adjusted net profit margin increasing from 55.3% to 56.2% in the next quarter [1]. Growth and Profitability Projections - By January 2026, EPS is projected to be $4.54, with revenue at $207.33 billion and a profit margin of 53.98%. By January 2028, EPS is expected to reach $8.47, with revenue of $356.75 billion and a peak profit margin of 58.52% [5]. - The average net profit margin over the next five years is anticipated to be 57.0% [4]. Market Dynamics - Nvidia's market share in the Chinese AI chip market is projected to decline from 66% in 2024 to 54% in 2025, primarily due to the rise of domestic competitors and complexities in chip supply recovery [8]. - Domestic AI chip manufacturers, such as Huawei, are rapidly iterating their products, which may further pressure Nvidia's market position [9]. Competitive Landscape - The growth of domestic AI chips may impact Nvidia's pricing power, which has been strong due to its near-monopoly in high-performance AI chips. The increasing competition could lead to price pressures and a potential loss of market share [13]. - Analysts note that the Chinese market's scale provides local companies with opportunities to grow and develop their ecosystems, potentially leading to competition beyond China [13].