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万亿美元AI投资回报被夸大?现在每个人都在问:GPU的寿命究竟有几年?
NvidiaNvidia(US:NVDA) 美股IPO·2025-11-14 23:10

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation period of GPUs is a critical issue affecting corporate profits and investment returns, especially as major tech companies plan to invest $1 trillion in AI data centers over the next five years [3][5]. Depreciation Challenges - The actual lifespan of GPUs is under scrutiny, with estimates ranging from two to six years, leading to concerns about inflated earnings by companies like Microsoft, Google, and Oracle [3][6]. - The lack of historical data on GPU usage complicates depreciation assessments, making it difficult for investors and lenders to gauge the value of these assets [5][6]. Market Reactions - Concerns about AI spending have already impacted stock prices, with CoreWeave's shares dropping 57% from their June peak and Oracle's stock falling 34% from its September high last year [3]. - CoreWeave has adopted a six-year depreciation cycle for its infrastructure, but its stock fell 16% following earnings reports due to delays from third-party data center developers [6][3]. Technological Impact - Rapid technological advancements are pressuring the depreciation of AI chips, with new models being released annually, which may render older models obsolete more quickly [7][8]. - Companies like Amazon have shortened the expected lifespan of some servers from six years to five years due to the accelerated pace of technological development in AI and machine learning [7]. Corporate Strategies - Microsoft is diversifying its AI chip procurement to avoid over-investment in any single generation of processors, acknowledging the rapid pace of innovation [8][9]. - Depreciation estimates are influenced by various factors, including technological obsolescence and maintenance, requiring companies to justify their assumptions to auditors [9].