SMIC(SH:688981) 光大证券研究·2025-11-16 23:03Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth and improved profit margins, indicating strong demand and effective operational strategies [4][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $2.382 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%, surpassing both company guidance and market expectations [4]. - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 22%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year and 1.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the company's guidance of 18% to 20% [4]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was $315 million, with attributable net profit of $192 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 44.7% [4]. Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by application in Q3 2025: smartphones (21.5%), computers and tablets (15.2%), consumer electronics (43.4%), IoT and wearables (8.0%), industrial and automotive (11.9%) [5]. - 12-inch wafer revenue accounted for 77% of total wafer revenue in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points [5]. - Regional revenue distribution in Q3 2025: China (86.2%), USA (10.8%), and Eurasia (3%) [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Strong overall demand continues to outstrip supply, with AI demand expected to remain robust and moderate growth in other sectors [6]. - The trend of domestic substitution is driving increased orders and market share for the company, particularly in the analog chip, memory, and CIS sectors [6]. - Short-term disruptions in output due to memory chip shortages are noted, but overall demand remains unaffected [6]. Group 4: Capacity and Investment - Q3 2025 capacity utilization rate was 95.8%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-over-year and 3.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [7]. - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was $2.39 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 27%, with expectations for 2025 capital expenditure to remain stable or slightly increase [7]. - The company anticipates accelerated capacity expansion in 2026 due to sustained demand from AI, memory, and domestic substitution trends [7].