Morgan Stanley(US:MS) 美股IPO·2025-11-17 14:40Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley defines 2026 as the "Year of Risk Reboot," expecting a shift in market focus from macro uncertainties to micro fundamentals, driven by a rare combination of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies alongside an AI investment cycle, leading to strong corporate earnings growth and a projected S&P 500 index rise to 7800 points, approximately 15% higher than current levels [1][3]. Policy Environment - The report highlights a unique "policy triumvirate" consisting of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and regulatory relaxation, which will work in a pro-cyclical manner, creating a favorable environment for risk assets [6][9]. - Fiscal policy is expected to provide significant corporate tax cuts amounting to $129 billion through the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)" in 2026-27 [6]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, easing financial conditions [7]. - Regulatory relaxation will prioritize easing regulations, particularly in the energy and financial sectors [8]. AI Investment Cycle - AI-related capital expenditures are projected to be long-term and less affected by business cycle fluctuations, with an estimated total of nearly $3 trillion in data center-related capital expenditures, of which less than 20% has been deployed [11]. - A financing gap of up to $1.5 trillion is expected, necessitating various credit channels to fill this gap [12][14]. - The demand for high-quality credit products remains strong, but the significant supply pressure is likely to lead to a mild widening of credit spreads for investment-grade bonds [13]. Equity Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 index will outperform other global markets, driven by strong earnings growth, AI-driven efficiency improvements, and a favorable policy environment [15]. - The forecast for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) is $272 for 2025 (12% growth), $317 for 2026 (17% growth), and $356 for 2027 (12% growth), supported by improved pricing power, AI efficiency, and stable interest rates [16]. Fixed Income Market - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to experience significant "bull steepening" in the first half of 2026, with short-term rates declining sharply due to Fed rate cuts [23][24]. - The report anticipates a 60% increase in net issuance of U.S. investment-grade bonds, primarily driven by AI and data center financing needs, leading to wider credit spreads [30]. Commodity Market - Morgan Stanley favors metals over energy in the commodities sector, with gold being the top choice, setting a target price of $4500 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of about 9% [33]. - The supply of copper is expected to face challenges, leading to a projected price of $10,600 per ton in 2026 due to mining disruptions [36]. - The outlook for the energy market is less favorable, with Brent crude oil prices expected to remain around $60 per barrel due to weak demand and high non-OPEC supply [36].