英伟达财报前瞻：市场无须太过焦虑

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is set to release its Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report on November 19, with analysts expecting significant growth in revenue and earnings per share, indicating a bullish outlook despite market anxieties about an AI bubble [1][3][21]. Financial Expectations - Analysts predict earnings per share (EPS) of $1.25, a 55% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $54.94 billion, a 57% increase year-over-year [3]. - The revenue for Q2 of fiscal 2026 was $46.7 billion, with EPS at $1.05, and guidance for Q3 revenue is set at $54 billion, excluding H20 product shipments to Asia [3][5]. - There is a strong expectation for Q3 revenue to increase by over $8 billion from the previous quarter, with potential actual performance exceeding $90 billion [5]. Future Projections - The key question is whether Nvidia can raise its Q4 revenue guidance to meet analyst expectations of $61.5 billion, maintaining a growth rate of 56% [6]. - Market forecasts suggest Nvidia's sales could approach $300 billion in fiscal 2027 and reach $360 billion in fiscal 2028 [6][7]. Market Context - Nvidia's projected sales for fiscal 2026 are around $208 billion, with significant growth since the AI boom initiated by OpenAI's ChatGPT, yet still far from the $1 trillion market potential [9][10]. - Despite impressive current performance, there remains a substantial gap to the $1 trillion market target discussed by Nvidia's CEO and AMD's projections for the data center market [10][12]. AI Demand and Market Sentiment - The AI boom appears to be in its early stages, with AMD predicting a $1 trillion market opportunity, suggesting that concerns about a bubble bursting are premature [12]. - Nvidia's stock has seen a modest decline of just over 10% from its peak of $212 to $190, indicating relative stability compared to other AI-related companies [12]. Valuation and Growth - Analysts expect Nvidia's EPS to grow by 50% this year and 49% next year, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 28 based on projected EPS of $6.78 for fiscal 2027 [13][14]. - The company's valuation does not reflect a premium, and its business is still significantly below the anticipated $1 trillion market opportunity [22]. Risks and Margins - There are concerns that a significant drop in gross margins could lead to bearish sentiments, especially if competitors like AMD gain market share [17]. - Nvidia's expected gross margin for Q3 is 73.5%, with potential for it to reach 75% in Q4, although risks remain for margins to revert to historical averages around 60% [17][19].