Lilly(US:LLY) 美股IPO·2025-11-19 01:05Core Insights - Eli Lilly's drug Zepbound has gained a dominant position in the new prescription drug market, leading to a surge in its market capitalization to approximately $970 billion, while competitor Novo Nordisk's market cap has fallen to about $200 billion [1][3] - The recent agreement with the U.S. government for Medicare coverage, resolution of production bottlenecks, and the upcoming launch of an oral version of the drug are expected to further solidify Eli Lilly's leading position in the weight loss drug market [1][3][4] Market Dynamics - Eli Lilly is on track to become the first trillion-dollar pharmaceutical company, driven by its overwhelming advantage in GLP-1 class drugs [3] - The market dynamics indicate that Eli Lilly has decisively outpaced competitors, with Zepbound capturing the majority of new obesity drug prescriptions despite only launching at the end of 2023 [3] - Since March 2024, Eli Lilly's market value has skyrocketed from over $700 billion to around $970 billion, while Novo Nordisk's market cap has plummeted from over $500 billion to approximately $200 billion [3] Growth Potential - The resolution of supply shortages that previously limited growth for both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk has been achieved, with Eli Lilly preparing to launch an oral version of its weight loss drug [4] - The oral formulation is expected to be easier to scale in production and more affordable, entering a market that is "structurally ready to accept it" [4] Global Expansion - Eli Lilly's global expansion appears to be in its early stages, with overseas revenue from its drug Mounjaro (similar to Zepbound) increasing from $728 million to $2.97 billion year-over-year by Q3 2025 [6] - Approximately 75% of Mounjaro's sales come from cash payments by obesity patients, indicating a strong market demand [6] Market Opportunities - The opening of markets in Brazil and Europe, along with improvements in insurance reimbursements, suggests that the global opportunities for GLP-1 drugs may represent the "real sleeping giant" in Eli Lilly's growth story [7] Valuation Concerns - If Eli Lilly's market cap quickly surpasses $1 trillion, discussions regarding its valuation will intensify, as the current stock price is about 34 times forward earnings, higher than Nvidia or Microsoft [8] - However, projections indicate that annual sales for Eli Lilly's two flagship drugs are expected to exceed $40 billion by 2026 and approach $60 billion by 2030, potentially justifying the high valuation [8] Patent Risks - The long-term risk lies in the patent system, as major drugs face the "physical law" of patent expiration, which could lead to increased competition from companies like Amgen and Pfizer [8]