Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股研究社·2025-11-19 10:08Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing collective anxiety, with Nvidia (NVDA.US) positioned as a potential savior. The upcoming Q3 earnings report from Nvidia is expected to significantly influence market direction in the final weeks of the year [2][4]. Market Sentiment - A gloomy sentiment is spreading across financial markets, with speculative areas like Bitcoin down 29% from its peak and facing negative returns this year [4]. - Companies holding Bitcoin, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR.US), have seen stock prices drop over 30% this year, with declines exceeding 50% from summer highs [7]. Technology Sector Performance - Non-profitable U.S. tech companies have struggled for weeks, indicating a loss of patience among investors, including risk-taking retail investors. Meta Platforms (META.US) has seen its stock price flat this year, losing a quarter of its market value since August due to concerns over AI spending [10]. Private Market Pressures - The private market has faced a series of distressing events, with indices tracking firms like Blackstone and KKR down 13% this year, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's performance [13]. Nvidia's Earnings Importance - Despite recent sell-offs, Nvidia's stock has risen 35% this year, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq 100 index's 17% increase. The company's valuation is now more attractive, with a forward P/E ratio of approximately 29, below its 10-year average of 35 [14][17]. Analyst Expectations - Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Nvidia's upcoming earnings, expecting both net profit and revenue to grow over 50%. Major clients like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta account for over 40% of Nvidia's sales, with anticipated AI spending growth of 34% to $440 billion over the next 12 months [17][19]. Supply Chain and Demand Dynamics - Analysts from JPMorgan highlight that Nvidia's growth is constrained by supply chain capacity limits rather than demand. The company is expected to see a 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in Blackwell/Blackwell Ultra rack shipments, reaching about 10,000 racks [21]. - Nvidia's order backlog for 2026 has surpassed 70,000 racks, exceeding its maximum production capacity for the upcoming year [21]. Market Concerns - Despite the positive outlook from analysts, there are deepening concerns regarding AI investments. Notable investors have sold their Nvidia shares, and there are warnings about a potential AI bubble [25]. - The market is particularly anxious about the reliability of AI spending figures, especially if major AI spenders like OpenAI need to retract commitments [25].