PDD(US:PDD) 美股IPO·2025-11-19 12:52Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q3 financial report indicates a turning point in profitability, with operating profit increasing by 1% year-on-year to RMB 27.1 billion and net profit rising by 14% to RMB 31.4 billion, despite concerns over slowing growth in online marketing services revenue [1][3][5] Financial Performance - Operating profit returned to positive growth after several quarters of decline, primarily due to a lower comparison base and stable sales and marketing expenses [5] - Net profit exceeded market expectations, growing by 14% to RMB 31.4 billion [5] - Online marketing services revenue growth fell to 8%, significantly below market expectations of low double-digit growth, indicating weaker-than-expected growth in gross merchandise volume and monetization rates [4][10] Analyst Ratings and Valuation - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup, maintain "buy" ratings but show divergence in target valuations, with Morgan Stanley at $148, Citigroup raising to $170, and Goldman Sachs lowering to $147 [3][4] - Analysts believe that the narrowing losses in the Temu business and the establishment of a profitability turning point are key factors supporting valuation [3][7] Temu Business Insights - Management emphasizes trust, safety, and product compliance as core components of high-quality development for the Temu business, with significant investments made in these areas [8] - Goldman Sachs projects that Temu's EBIT will reach RMB 17 billion and RMB 24 billion in FY 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting a focus on compliance and infrastructure investments [8] - Analysts view the profitability turning point for Temu as a critical factor for Pinduoduo's long-term value [7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Despite facing pressure from slowing growth, analysts find Pinduoduo's valuation attractive due to its growth prospects and limited valuation for Temu [9] - Goldman Sachs notes that Pinduoduo's current valuation based on a projected 11x P/E for 2026 remains appealing compared to the industry median of 17x [9] - The company is transitioning from a growth model reliant on high subsidies to a more sustainable focus on profitability quality [12] Growth Forecasts - Goldman Sachs estimates that domestic gross merchandise volume grew by 9% in Q3, only slightly above the industry growth rate, indicating a narrowing competitive advantage [11] - Morgan Stanley has revised down its gross merchandise volume forecasts for 2025-2027, while simultaneously raising expectations for profitability [11]