Nvidia(US:NVDA) Counterpoint Research·2025-11-20 04:14Core Insights - The article discusses the significant impact of chip shortages on memory prices, predicting a further increase of approximately 50% by Q2 2026, particularly affecting traditional LPDDR4 [4][5] - Counterpoint Research highlights that memory prices have already risen by 50% this year, with expectations of an additional 30% increase by Q4 2025 and around 20% early next year [5] - The shift in demand towards advanced memory solutions, particularly due to Nvidia's increased need for LPDDR, poses broader risks to the consumer electronics market [5][6] Memory Price Trends - The current market shows a price inversion where DDR5 is trading at approximately $1.50 per Gb, while older DDR4 is priced at $2.10 per Gb, exceeding the $1.70 for advanced HBM3e [5] - Counterpoint forecasts a more than 20% increase in DRAM production from major chip manufacturers by 2026 [6] Advanced Memory Risks - The article emphasizes that the real risk lies in advanced memory, as Nvidia's transition to LPDDR has created a demand comparable to that of large smartphone manufacturers, straining the supply chain [6] - The expected price increase for DDR5 64GB RDIMM DRAM modules is projected to double between Q1 2025 and the end of 2026 due to supply constraints [6] Impact on Smartphone Market - The shortage primarily affects mid to low-end smartphone markets, with potential ripple effects across the entire smartphone and consumer electronics ecosystem [9] - The bill of materials (BOM) costs for smartphones are expected to rise significantly, with some models seeing increases of up to 15%, which could compress profit margins and hinder growth [10] Macro Risks - The industry faces dual pressures from limited capacity and soaring prices, compounded by macro risks such as tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and employment trends, leading to increased uncertainty [10]