比强劲的财报更重要，高盛：英伟达管理层解答了三个“关键问题”

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has confirmed a strong revenue outlook for its data center business, projecting over $500 billion in revenue for the fiscal year 2025/26, with potential for further upside [1][7]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $55.4 billion. The fourth-quarter revenue guidance is set at $65 billion, also above market estimates of $62.4 billion [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in gross margin to 75% in the fourth quarter, aligning with previously set management targets, despite rising costs for HBM memory and other components [3]. Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs has raised Nvidia's future earnings per share (EPS) expectations by an average of 12% for the coming years. The firm has also provided EPS forecasts for fiscal years 2028 to 2030, estimating $15.60, $18.65, and $22.10 respectively [4]. Key Issues Addressed - Nvidia's management confirmed the expectation of exceeding $500 billion in data center product demand for the fiscal year 2025/26, with ongoing customer orders suggesting further growth potential [7]. - The next-generation Rubin chip is scheduled for release in mid-2026, with significant revenue contributions expected in the latter half of the same year, alleviating market concerns regarding product roadmap execution [7]. - Management provided evidence of the GPU product lifecycle, noting that the Ampere architecture GPU (A100), launched six years ago, continues to operate under high loads, indicating exceptional durability and longevity beyond customer depreciation expectations [8]. Data Center Business Growth - Nvidia's data center computing business achieved $51.2 billion in revenue for the third quarter, marking a 56% year-over-year increase. The new Blackwell Ultra (GB300) series accounted for two-thirds of total shipments in the Blackwell series [9]. - The data center networking business saw a remarkable 162% year-over-year growth, reaching $8.2 billion, driven by strong demand for NVLink, Spectrum-X, and Infiniband solutions, with significant contributions from major clients like Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and xAI [10]. - Looking ahead, Nvidia maintains its long-term outlook for the AI infrastructure market, predicting global annual spending to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, and aims to secure a significant share of this expansive market [10].