AI的庞氏骗局？

Core Insights - The article presents a bearish narrative on Nvidia, suggesting it exhibits signs of a Ponzi scheme due to alarming financial anomalies and unsustainable business practices [1][9]. Receivables Anomaly - Nvidia's accounts receivable surged by 89% to $33.4 billion, with Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) increasing from 46 to 53 days, indicating potential collection difficulties [2][3]. - The implication is that $10.4 billion may never be collected, a classic sign of financial distress [2]. Inventory Paradox - Inventory rose by 32% to $19.8 billion within three months, contradicting claims of high demand and sold-out capacity [2]. - The price of H100 rental dropped by 34% from $3.20 to $2.12 per hour, challenging the narrative of endless demand [2]. Cash Flow Signal - Nvidia's free cash flow conversion rate is only 75%, with a $4.8 billion gap between profits and actual cash flow, significantly lower than competitors like TSMC and AMD [3]. - This discrepancy suggests a façade of profitability while cash inflow remains weak [3]. Circular Financing Structure - The article details a complex flow of funds among Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, and others, indicating a cycle where revenue is counted multiple times, creating an illusion of growth [3]. - CoreWeave alone owes Nvidia $5.9 billion, representing 18% of total receivables, contributing to a false sense of prosperity [3]. "Vibe Revenue" Admission - Executives from various AI companies reportedly acknowledge that current AI revenues are largely based on hype rather than actual product sales [6]. - OpenAI's projected revenue of $3.7 billion in 2025 against expenditures of $9.3 billion highlights a significant financial imbalance [6]. Historical Precedent - The article draws parallels between the current AI bubble and past financial frauds, such as the 2000 internet bubble and the Enron scandal, suggesting a similar trajectory for Nvidia [6]. Margin Compression Evidence - Despite Nvidia's reported gross margin of over 70%, the true margin is declining when accounting for one-time credits and increased competition [7]. - Future margins are expected to drop below 50%, undermining the company's valuation model [7]. Smart Money Exit - Notable investors, including Peter Thiel and SoftBank's Masayoshi Son, have recently sold significant Nvidia shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the stock [7]. - Major hedge funds have also established short positions following the earnings report [7]. Contagion Mechanism - The article warns that a decline in Nvidia's stock could trigger forced liquidations of Bitcoin collateralized loans, potentially leading to a significant drop in Bitcoin prices [7]. Regulatory Response - Anticipation of regulatory scrutiny from the SEC and Federal Reserve regarding circular financing and related transactions, which could result in mandatory restatements and penalties [8]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the current situation represents a significant financial bubble, with predictions of a market correction occurring between February and April 2026 [8].