大摩之后第二家！“撤回12月降息预测”，摩根大通：12月跳过，1月重启降息

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have both retracted their predictions for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, citing mixed signals from employment data, and now expect the Fed to maintain rates in December, with potential cuts postponed until January and May 2026 [1][3][11]. Employment Data Analysis - The September non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, the highest since April, with the employment diffusion index rising to 55.6%, the highest level since February [3][6]. - However, the unemployment rate increased by 12 basis points to 4.44%, continuing an upward trend observed throughout the year, although this was partially offset by a rise in the labor force participation rate to 62.4% [8][10]. - Job gains were noted in various sectors, including a 22,000 increase in government jobs, primarily at the state and local levels, and significant gains in construction (19,000), healthcare (43,000), and leisure and hospitality (47,000) [8][10]. Wage Data Insights - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below expectations, but the year-over-year growth was revised upward to 3.8%, which was above expectations [10]. - The average workweek remained stable at 34.2 hours, and the data collection completion rate reached 80.2%, the highest since late 2019, indicating improved reliability of the data [10]. Federal Reserve's Decision-Making Context - The mixed employment report is expected to spark intense debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the decision to pause or continue interest rate cuts, with the outcome being very close [4][11]. - The report provides ample material for both hawkish and dovish arguments, suggesting that multiple committee members may dissent regardless of the final decision [11][12]. - The Fed's leadership has indicated a desire to slow the pace of rate cuts, and the September employment report offers justification for pausing [4][11].