AI的庞氏骗局？

Core Insights - The article presents a bearish narrative on Nvidia, suggesting it exhibits signs of a Ponzi scheme due to alarming financial metrics and operational anomalies [3][4][5][10]. Receivables Anomaly - Nvidia's accounts receivable surged by 89% to $33.4 billion, with Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) increasing from 46 to 53 days, indicating potential collection issues [3][4]. Inventory Paradox - Inventory rose by 32% to $19.8 billion within three months, contradicting claims of high demand and sold-out capacity, which historically precedes financial collapses [4][5]. Cash Flow Signal - Nvidia's free cash flow conversion rate is only 75%, with a $4.8 billion gap between reported profits and actual cash flow, significantly lower than peers like TSMC and AMD [4][5]. Circular Financing Structure - The article details a complex flow of funds among Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, and others, suggesting a closed-loop system that inflates revenue figures [5][10]. "Vibe Revenue" Admission - AI executives reportedly acknowledge that current AI revenues are largely based on hype rather than actual product sales, with OpenAI's projected 2025 revenue of $3.7 billion against expenses of $9.3 billion highlighting this discrepancy [7][10]. Historical Precedent - The article draws parallels between the current AI bubble and past financial frauds, emphasizing the rapid construction and scale of the current situation [8][10]. Margin Compression Evidence - Despite Nvidia's reported gross margin of over 70%, the article claims that true margins are declining due to various factors, including increased competition and product delays [8][10]. Smart Money Exit - Notable investors, including Peter Thiel and SoftBank's Masayoshi Son, have recently sold significant Nvidia shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the stock [8][10]. Contagion Mechanism - The potential for a broader market impact is discussed, with AI startups using approximately $26.8 billion in Bitcoin as collateral, which could trigger a market downturn if Nvidia's stock falls significantly [9][10]. Regulatory Response - The article anticipates regulatory scrutiny from the SEC and Federal Reserve regarding circular financing and related transactions, potentially leading to significant penalties [9][10]. Conclusion - The author concludes that this situation represents a significant financial risk, predicting a market correction in early 2026, urging investors to divest from AI-related assets [10].