Caitong Securities(SH:601108) 陈兴宏观研究·2025-11-23 00:01Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a general decline, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices falling by 1.9%, 1.9%, and 2.7% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, major overseas markets saw a decrease in yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices showed volatility, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.5% while Brent crude oil fell by 0.3%, and London gold prices decreased by 0.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% [2][3] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's stance on a potential rate cut in December remains uncertain, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a 25 basis point cut [4] - Some officials express caution about further rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, while others see the possibility of a cut if economic data aligns with expectations [4] - The European Central Bank is considering reassessing its interest rate path in response to potential risks to financial stability and inflation from stablecoin market dynamics [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. labor market showed signs of stabilization in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [8] - Job growth was primarily supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, while government employment may decline significantly due to federal employees leaving [8] - Housing demand in the U.S. is recovering, with existing home sales rising to an annualized total of 4.1 million in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone inflation showed signs of cooling, with the October CPI year-on-year growth rate at 2.1%, marking a second consecutive month of decline [12] - Germany's government announced an industrial revitalization plan, including electricity price subsidies and a fund to support small and medium enterprises, aiming to enhance global competitiveness [12] - Japan's government approved a substantial economic stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, which includes fiscal spending and tax cuts [13]