英伟达救不了AI股，市场想看到什么？

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's strong earnings report failed to boost the AI sector and instead deepened market anxiety, shifting investor focus from capital expenditure to return on investment (ROI) [1][2][9] Market Reaction - Nvidia's stock initially rose over 5% after its earnings report but reversed to close down 3.2%, reflecting a broader market trend where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also experienced declines [2] - The AI ecosystem is under pressure, with a chip-related stock index dropping 11% in November, marking its worst month since 2022, and companies like AMD and Arm seeing declines over 20% [4] Company-Specific Performance - Meta's stock has fallen 21% since its earnings report on October 29 due to concerns over aggressive capital spending, while Microsoft's stock dropped 13% for similar reasons [4] - Companies with weaker balance sheets, such as CoreWeave and Oracle, faced significant stock price declines of over 40% and 29%, respectively, potentially marking Oracle's largest monthly drop since 2001 [4][7] Diverging Opinions on AI Outlook - There is a clear divide in market sentiment regarding the future of AI, with skeptics fearing that high valuations driven by a few AI stocks are unsustainable, especially as companies may resort to debt to maintain spending [8] - Optimists view recent market corrections as healthy adjustments, believing that major tech players will continue to invest in AI without signs of slowing down [8] Shift in Investor Focus - Investors are increasingly questioning the ROI of substantial capital expenditures, seeking evidence of faster growth and higher profitability from companies providing AI software and services [9][10] - Nvidia's strong performance has not alleviated concerns regarding its major clients, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet, which are expected to increase their combined capital expenditures by 34% to $440 billion over the next 12 months [10] Future Volatility - The consensus among investors is that the path forward for AI trading will be bumpier, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and differing views on the progress of the AI revolution [11]