高盛：12月降息“呼之欲出”，明年3月和6月各降一次

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in December, with further cuts expected in March and June of next year, driven by economic risks and inflation nearing the target [1][3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report indicates that the FOMC is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points during the December meeting, with a potential terminal federal funds rate of 3%-3.25% by 2026 [3]. - Key figures within the Federal Reserve support this view, highlighting the need for "further adjustments" due to cooling labor markets and reduced inflation risks [3][5]. - The upcoming employment report and CPI data are scheduled after the December meeting, suggesting no obstacles to the rate cut decision [3]. Economic Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. economic growth will accelerate to a range of 2%-2.5% in 2026, aided by reduced tariffs, tax cuts, and eased financial conditions [4]. - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize slightly above the September level of 4.44% [4]. Inflation Outlook - The report suggests limited upside risks for further rate cuts, based on a positive interpretation of recent inflation data [5]. - Core PCE inflation has remained stable around 2.8% as of September, indicating that underlying inflation is close to the target [6][7]. Labor Market Concerns - Despite a strong non-farm payroll report, there are growing risks in the labor market, with potential job growth trends estimated at only 39,000 [9]. - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 25 and older has risen to 2.8%, while the rate for those aged 20-24 has increased to 8.5%, indicating a deterioration in job opportunities for this demographic [9]. - The impact of AI and efficiency improvements may disproportionately affect consumer spending, potentially leading to more rate cuts by the Fed [9]. Stock Market Outlook - The report indicates that while spending is not excessive, stock market valuations are high, leading to expectations of lower returns for U.S. equities over the next decade compared to historical averages [10].