CM BANK(SH:600036) 招商银行研究·2025-11-24 09:31Global ETF Development Trends - The global ETF market has seen continuous growth, with assets reaching approximately $14.8 trillion by the end of 2024, reflecting an annual compound growth rate of 18.4% over the past 15 years [5][10] - In the first half of 2025, the global ETF market maintained a strong growth momentum, with net inflows exceeding $849 billion, bringing total assets to over $16.7 trillion [5][10] - ETFs now account for over 15% of the total public fund market globally, with a notable increase in the share of equity ETFs [10][19] Factors Driving Global ETF Growth - On the funding side, market demand and policy encouragement have driven significant inflows into ETFs, as investors shift towards risk-balanced strategies [19][20] - Performance advantages of passive funds over active funds have also contributed to this trend, particularly in the U.S. market where active funds have struggled to outperform benchmarks [19][20] - Technological advancements and supportive policies have facilitated product innovation and expansion within the ETF market [20][21] Characteristics of Offshore ETF Markets - In the U.S., there has been a significant shift of funds from active to passive management, with passive fund assets increasing by nearly $2.9 trillion from 2015 to 2024 [31][36] - The European ETF market, while slower in its transition to passive management, leads globally in ESG ETF offerings due to a robust regulatory framework [40][41] - Japan's ETF market is characterized by a high proportion of equity ETFs, largely driven by central bank purchases, with REITs ETFs also showing significant growth [47][48] China's ETF Market Dynamics - China's ETF market has grown rapidly since its inception in 2004, with assets increasing from 159.6 billion yuan in 2013 to 3.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 33% [22][27] - As of mid-2025, equity ETFs accounted for 70.4% of the total ETF market in China, with cross-border and fixed-income ETFs also gaining traction [22][27] - The low-interest-rate environment is expected to further drive the demand for ETFs as a low-cost investment tool [27] Lessons from Offshore ETF Development - The dual-driven model of active and passive funds in China is likely to differ from the U.S. trend of continuous fund migration from active to passive [57] - The diverse product matrix seen in offshore markets, particularly in areas like dividend and bond ETFs, presents opportunities for growth in China's ETF offerings [58][59] - Recommendations for enhancing ETF business include collaborating with fund managers to introduce innovative products that cater to market demands [59]