晶圆代工，2300亿美元

Core Insights - The global wafer foundry market is expected to reach $199.4 billion in revenue by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 25% driven by strong AI demand [1] - In 2026, the market size is projected to grow by an additional 17%, surpassing $230 billion, supported by ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [1] - From 2025 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global wafer foundry market is anticipated to be 14.3%, although risks related to AI investment bubbles and geopolitical tensions remain significant [1] Industry Analysis - AI has become the core driving force for the semiconductor industry amid global economic instability and weak consumer electronics demand [1] - Cloud service providers (CSPs) are expanding AI computing power, which is increasing the demand for AI accelerators and self-developed AI ASICs, thereby driving mid-term growth in the wafer foundry industry [1] - By 2030, industry revenue is expected to double compared to 2025 [1] Advanced Process Competition - In the advanced process competition, TSMC remains the main player in global capacity expansion, with plans to add over 300,000 12-inch wafers per month in the next five years [1] - Samsung Electronics and Intel are expected to have relatively limited capacity increases, allowing TSMC to maintain its competitive advantage until 2030 [1] Mature Process Developments - In the mature process segment, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency policies are expected to lead to an increase of approximately 350,000 12-inch wafers per month from Chinese foundries over the next five years, significantly reshaping the global supply landscape [2] - Despite benefiting from AI opportunities, the wafer foundry industry faces uncertainties due to the long payback period for AI infrastructure investments and geopolitical risks stemming from the US-China tech war [2]