TSMC(US:TSM) 美股研究社·2025-11-24 13:22Core Viewpoint - TSMC plays a crucial role as an irreplaceable technology supplier for AI development and deployment, which supports its strong financial performance. The company maintains significant pricing power even with its largest clients, leading to double-digit profit growth [1]. Company Overview - TSMC is one of the most advanced manufacturers globally, with core advantages that few competitors can match. The company actively defends its technological edge through legal means and has a customer base that includes major players like NVIDIA and Intel, which rely on TSMC for cutting-edge chips [3]. Potential Catalysts - Exponential Growth of AI: The competition among large data center operators in AI is a primary growth driver for TSMC, leading to a surge in demand for customized chips. TSMC is expanding capacity rapidly due to increased orders from NVIDIA, which could lead to supply bottlenecks if not managed [5]. - Mitigation of Geopolitical Risks: TSMC faces significant geopolitical risks that could impact its production capabilities. To address this, the company is expanding its manufacturing presence in new markets, including a commitment to build three factories in Arizona, USA [6]. Financial Overview - TSMC's financial strength is highlighted by total revenue of $119.13 billion and a gross profit of $70.26 billion, placing it at the top of its industry. The latest quarterly results show an EPS of $2.92, exceeding expectations, and revenue of $32.29 billion, also above market consensus [8]. - The company has a high gross margin of 58.98%, an EBIT margin of 49.52%, and a net profit margin of 42.29%, reflecting its efficient operational structure [8]. - TSMC's revenue grew by 36.96% year-over-year, with a diluted EPS increase of 49.62%. The three-year CAGR for revenue stands at 20.48% [9]. Future Growth Prospects - The forward revenue growth rate is projected at 29.08%, which is competitive compared to peers like Broadcom at 28.91% and AMD at 31.83% [10]. Target Price Logic - TSMC's liquidity totals $90.25 billion, with a strong cash flow from operations of $71.18 billion. Despite high capital expenditures of $41.89 billion, the company generated $20.61 billion in levered free cash flow, indicating robust financial health [12]. - The forward P/E ratio is 27.27, higher than the industry average of 22.89, but analysts consider this premium justified due to TSMC's market dominance and growth potential [13]. - A conservative target P/E of 25 is applied, leading to a target price of $312.50, indicating significant upside potential from the current stock price [14]. Conclusion - TSMC's strong financial health and growth trajectory position it as a primary beneficiary of the surge in demand for high-end chips driven by the AI boom. The company is taking measures to mitigate geopolitical and trade risks, reinforcing the rationale for its valuation premium [18].