准时上演！“大空头”大战英伟达，“AI泡沫”论战开启

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short" investor, has declared war on the AI bubble, arguing that the current market dynamics mirror the 1999 dot-com bubble, particularly highlighting Nvidia as the modern-day Cisco [1][3][6]. Group 1: AI Bubble and Nvidia - Burry asserts that Nvidia is at the center of the current AI hype, similar to how Cisco was central during the internet boom [3][5]. - He challenges the prevailing belief that strong profitability among tech giants negates the existence of a bubble, citing that the 1999 Nasdaq surge was driven by high-profit companies, not just unprofitable startups [6][7]. - Burry identifies the "Five Public Knights" of the current AI boom—Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle—who are projected to invest nearly $3 trillion in AI infrastructure over the next three years [7][9]. Group 2: Supply-Side Gluttony - Burry describes the current situation as "supply-side gluttony," warning of catastrophic overbuilding and insufficient demand in the AI sector [9]. - He criticizes tech companies for extending depreciation periods to inflate profits, predicting that from 2026 to 2028, large tech firms could overstate profits by $176 billion due to underestimated depreciation [8][9]. - Specific companies like Oracle and Meta are highlighted, with expected profit exaggerations of 26.9% and 20.8%, respectively, by 2028 [8]. Group 3: Burry's Transition and Market Response - Burry has transitioned from fund management to a full-time analyst role, launching a paid subscription newsletter titled "Cassandra Unchained," where he shares his market insights without restrictions [12][13]. - Despite facing backlash and skepticism, particularly from Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, who claims a different perspective on the AI landscape, Burry remains steadfast in his bearish outlook on AI [10][14].