德银：“五重冲击”齐袭！本轮比特币暴跌的逻辑，和过去完全不一样

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes that the recent decline in Bitcoin is driven by five major shocks, including macroeconomic headwinds, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, stagnation in regulatory progress, outflows of institutional funds, and profit-taking by long-term holders, indicating a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's investment logic and an unprecedented emphasis on risk management [1][2][4]. Group 1: Five Major Shocks - Shock One: High Correlation with Tech Stocks The recent decline in Bitcoin is synchronized with the drop in U.S. stocks, indicating that Bitcoin has not yet established its function as a defensive hedge [3]. - Shock Two: Increased Uncertainty in Monetary Policy The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key driver of Bitcoin's decline, with a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and Fed interest rates [10][11]. - Shock Three: Stagnation of Regulatory Key Legislation The momentum for regulatory frameworks has stalled, hindering the integration of Bitcoin into investment portfolios and liquidity deepening [13][15]. - Shock Four: Institutional Fund Outflows and Liquidity Drain A vicious cycle of liquidity drain and institutional fund outflows has exacerbated the price drop, with significant net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs recently [17][18]. - Shock Five: Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders Unlike previous crashes driven by new or leveraged traders, this adjustment has seen long-term holders selling off over 800,000 Bitcoins, marking the highest level since January 2024 [20][21]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Market Dynamics The correlation between Bitcoin and major stock indices has surged, reaching levels similar to those during the market stress of the COVID-19 pandemic [5][6]. - Future Outlook The ability of Bitcoin to stabilize post-adjustment remains uncertain, but regulatory reforms and increased interest from governments and central banks may enhance institutional confidence and market liquidity [23]. - Risk Management Importance As the cryptocurrency market evolves, implementing strict risk management measures is crucial due to the potential for increased price volatility driven by uncertainty and leverage effects [23].