重新引起关注的茅台

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is considered a strong stock due to its ability to withstand economic cycles and its long-term stable growth, making it a preferred asset for beating inflation [2][15]. Group 1: Moutai's Resilience and Growth - Moutai has demonstrated its ability to lead the high-end liquor industry through economic cycles, showcasing its resistance to downturns and its capacity for long-term growth [2][15]. - Investors have developed a sense of complacency regarding Moutai's performance, expecting consistent growth at a moderate rate, with many believing that significant downward adjustments in performance are unlikely [2]. - The sustainability of Moutai's high dividends and return on equity (ROE) is crucial, as is the continuous upward trend in profit margins, both of which rely on price increases [2]. Group 2: Inflation Resistance Re-evaluation - The perception that essential consumer goods can resist inflation is challenged, as many do not outperform inflation rates, and their stock returns may not exceed broader market indices [4]. - Moutai's pricing trends are closely tied to GDP growth, indicating a dual characteristic of cyclical bubbles and long-term inflation [7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current white liquor market is experiencing a "volume and price decline," with supply exceeding demand expected in the coming years due to previously added production capacity [9]. - Long-term demand remains unpredictable, but maintaining current demand levels is a core assumption for future projections [9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to transition from business to consumer demand, with the potential for a new growth cycle as wealth effects spread through society [13]. - Historical patterns suggest that Moutai was once a common choice for family celebrations, indicating a latent demand that could be reactivated [12]. Group 5: Moutai's Pricing Strategy - Moutai's pricing strategy is pivotal, with price increases directly impacting company performance, and the introduction of differentiated products helps stabilize prices [19][20]. - The revenue structure of Moutai has diversified, with a significant portion now coming from non-standard products, which are expected to contribute to higher profit margins [26]. Group 6: Market Reactions and Performance - Despite declining prices in the market, Moutai's stock has not followed suit, with some investors viewing the current price as an attractive entry point based on the stability of channel profits [29]. - There is a noted discrepancy between reported performance and actual market demand, indicating potential risks for future earnings adjustments [30].