ASML Holding(US:ASML) 美股IPO·2025-11-27 10:28Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the strong DRAM technology upgrade cycle, the potential early rollout of TSMC's 3nm process, and the indirect demand from NVIDIA's AI chips are key catalysts driving ASML's profit growth in 2026-2027. The firm has raised ASML's target price from €975 to €1000 [1][2][11]. Group 1: DRAM Market Dynamics - The demand in the DRAM market is robust, with ASML maintaining solid demand during the transition from 1a and 1b nodes to 1γ/1c nodes. Each technology node evolution increases the number of EUV lithography layers required, with the 1c node needing 5-6 layers [3][4]. - Samsung and SK Hynix's demand for DRAM in FY2026 is expected to be clear, supported by strong price increases in the commodity DRAM market [3]. Group 2: TSMC's 3nm Process - TSMC is reportedly testing the original graphic performance of its 3nm process, with potential adoption at its Arizona facility occurring earlier than the initially planned 2028 [4]. - ASML benefits from TSMC's 3nm technology, as it relies on ASML's EUV lithography machines to produce more powerful, energy-efficient, and smaller chips [4]. Group 3: AI Demand and Market Recovery - The growth of AI is indirectly creating demand for ASML, with NVIDIA's record quarterly revenue indicating strong market interest in its Blackwell series GPUs. This demand is expected to support ASML's wafer fabrication equipment supply in FY2026/27 [6][9]. - ASML is emerging from a prolonged 14-month downturn, with signs of new growth momentum as evidenced by rising commodity DRAM prices and advancements in Samsung's HBM3e/HBM4 [9]. Group 4: Profitability and Challenges - Despite an optimistic outlook, ASML faces challenges, particularly in its DUV business, which is expected to see a 15% year-over-year sales decline due to weakened demand in a key Asian market [10]. - ASML's profit margins are expected to remain resilient, supported by higher EUV sales and contributions from its installed base management business. The projected gross margin for FY2026 is 52.3%, only slightly down from 52.7% in FY2025 [11].