Micron Technology(US:MU) 半导体行业观察·2025-11-30 04:53Core Viewpoint - The explosive demand for artificial intelligence is accelerating a historic shortage of memory chips globally, with major cloud service providers (CSPs) signing long-term agreements to secure supply for 2027 and 2028 [1][3]. Group 1: Server Shortage Driven by AI - The unprecedented shortage of servers is primarily driven by a surge in demand for AI, making servers the largest deployment platform for applications [2][3]. - Major telecom service providers are reserving more servers for 2026-2027, with procurement volumes far exceeding actual demand [3]. - Memory manufacturers' expansion plans for 2026 cannot keep pace with demand, leading to nearly all production capacity being booked for the year [3]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - Sellers have gained unprecedented pricing power, ensuring that prices will continue to rise throughout 2026 without any declines in the second half of the year [3]. - Server suppliers are willing to pay premiums to secure capacity, becoming priority customers for suppliers [3]. - Some telecom service providers may offer better terms, such as prepayments or equipment financing, to lock in capacity for 2027-2028 [3]. Group 3: Long-term Agreements and Market Access - Most telecom service providers are actively seeking contracts longer than one year, but only a few are likely to secure long-term agreements [6][7]. - Approximately 30% of telecom service providers have managed to sign long-term agreements, while 90% have not [7]. - Current spot prices are "abnormally high," and while they may decline, contract prices remain significantly lower than spot prices, with expectations of a 50% increase in the next 6-9 months [7]. Group 4: NAND Flash Memory Constraints - The shortage issue is not limited to DRAM; NAND flash prices are also rising rapidly, with some suppliers increasing prices even in the face of shortages [5]. - Server OEMs confirm stable output and yield for AI GPUs, but memory shortages remain a critical bottleneck in the supply chain [5]. Group 5: Manufacturer Focus and Capacity Expansion - SK Hynix plans no expansion of NAND wafer production in 2026, focusing instead on high bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM [8]. - New wafer fabs from Samsung and Micron are unlikely to contribute to capacity growth until after the second half of 2027 [8].