大摩：人形机器人“短期过热、长期低估”，商业化落地成关键胜负手

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley highlights the humanoid robot market as "overheated in the short term but undervalued in the long term," indicating a significant disparity between current market excitement and future potential [4][21] - The report predicts that by 2050, the global market size for humanoid robots could reach $5 trillion, far exceeding the current automotive industry [8][21] Short-term Overheating - The Chinese market is expected to show remarkable growth, with announced orders exceeding 2 billion RMB (approximately $300 million) by the second half of 2025, primarily from industrial, commercial services, and data center sectors [6][21] - However, many of these orders may not be fulfilled, as they include "framework orders" with low execution certainty, leading to a cautious outlook on recent growth [6][21] - Companies are setting aggressive shipment targets, with some expecting to deliver 100,000 units by 2026, but Morgan Stanley maintains a conservative estimate based on "limited working capacity" [6][21] Long-term Undervaluation - The long-term market potential for humanoid robots is significantly underestimated, with a projected global stock of 1 billion units by 2050 and a revenue market size nearing $5 trillion [8][12] - This potential is compared to the total revenue of the top 20 global automotive manufacturers, which is about $2.5 trillion in 2024, suggesting that the humanoid robot market could be twice that size [8][12] - The report anticipates that by 2050, commercial applications will dominate the market with approximately 935 million units, while household applications will account for around 84 million units [11][12] Commercialization as a Key Factor - The success of the humanoid robot industry hinges on effective commercialization, with a consensus emerging that return on investment (ROI) will be the critical metric for evaluating success [5][13] - Current industry players are moving away from merely showcasing technological advancements to demonstrating real value creation in practical scenarios [13] - Positive commercialization examples include Figure AI's robot contributing to the production of 30,000 cars at BMW's Spartanburg plant and Booster Robotics delivering over 700 humanoid robots to more than 200 clients globally [14][15] Policy and Capital Support in China - The development of the humanoid robot market in China is strongly supported by policies and capital, with approximately 187 billion RMB allocated to various funds aimed at industry development [18][20] - The Chinese government has introduced numerous supportive policies since 2023, including the establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots [18][19] - This "policy + capital" dual-drive model provides China with a unique advantage in the global humanoid robot competition, signaling a shift from technological exploration to commercial promotion [19][21]