Netflix(US:NFLX) 美股研究社·2025-12-01 10:49Core Viewpoint - Netflix is a controversial company with both strong supporters and critics, and recent market volatility has increased analysts' interest in potential reverse trading opportunities due to the recent price drop [1]. Q3 Performance: Earnings Miss Expectations, Revenue and Cash Flow Stable - In Q3, Netflix showed signs of weakness, with earnings per share (EPS) at $5.87, significantly below expectations, resulting in a net profit of $2.55 billion. This disappointing performance was heavily influenced by ongoing disputes with Brazilian tax authorities, leading to a one-time expense of $619 million. Consequently, the year-over-year EPS growth rate was less than 9%, which is considered lackluster given the current valuation [2]. - The tax issues are expected to result in a 1 percentage point decline in operating margin for the full year, justifying the market's recent sell-off of the stock [2]. Revenue Growth and Cash Flow - On a positive note, Q3 revenue reached $11.5 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, comfortably surpassing market consensus expectations. This stable revenue growth was driven by Netflix's advertising business, membership growth, and pricing strategies. Additionally, free cash flow was nearly $2.7 billion, exceeding guidance, and the company raised its full-year free cash flow guidance for 2025 to approximately $9 billion, which may help drive valuation multiples [4]. Valuation Comparison: Significant Growth and Profitability Advantages - Netflix stands out among peers as the only stock demonstrating growth potential based on revenue and EPS growth. In contrast, Disney's business is more mature with slowing growth prospects, while Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Global are still in transition and have not fully realized their potential. Netflix's structural growth potential supports a higher forward P/E ratio compared to traditional media companies [6]. - The free cash flow data indicates that Netflix is no longer the cash-burning company it once was. With an EPS growth of around 20% and revenue growth of about 15%, a free cash flow yield of approximately 6% places it in the "growth at a reasonable price (GARP)" category rather than in a bubble. Although some may argue that Disney's valuation is similar from a free cash flow perspective, Netflix's growth rate is 2-3 times that of Disney, suggesting that investors holding long positions in Netflix are not overpaying significantly on a cash basis [6]. Profitability Metrics - Analysts recommend closely monitoring the gross margin performance of Netflix and its peers. Currently, Netflix's profitability is at a different level, with a gross margin of 46%, significantly leading its peers, and an operating margin of about 29%, which is roughly double that of Disney. Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Global lag significantly, with operating margins just above 4% and 8%, respectively. This indicates that Netflix's streaming business is more scalable, as it is not burdened by low-margin traditional media operations [7]. Technical Analysis: Weak Uptrend, Downside Risks Persist - Long-term stock price trends show that Netflix's stock has clearly fallen below the -2 standard deviation range, typically seen as a bullish signal. However, the steep slope of the weekly standard deviation price channel suggests that the current trend may be difficult to sustain, requiring a more balanced downward correction. Additionally, the stock has fallen below the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), and the MACD has crossed below the zero line [8]. - Short-term trends are even weaker, with the stock price breaking below all four major moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day). Momentum indicators are nearly completely weak, and the stock has not yet breached the -2 standard deviation mark, indicating that the remaining buy signals on the weekly chart are absent on the daily chart. Overall, these signs suggest that a significant top may be forming near the June 30 high of $134.12, with potential for further downside [9]. Conclusion: Patience Recommended for More Attractive Entry Prices - Analysts suggest that a wiser approach is to remain patient and wait for a more attractive price level for entry. On a positive note, the one-time tax expense in Brazil is viewed as a favorable catalyst, as the recent stock price decline has obscured many bullish fundamentals present in Q3. However, the stock may still face negative momentum in the short term, with new buying opportunities likely to emerge at more attractive price levels before the end of 2025 [10].