英特尔（Intel）的买入窗口已关闭

Core Viewpoint - Intel is showing clear signs of transformation with improved sales in certain areas and enhanced profit margins, although the fourth-quarter outlook is slightly below expectations, indicating that the recovery may not be smooth. Analysts believe the best time to buy Intel has passed due to significant valuation expansion in recent months [1][10][17]. Revenue Recovery - In Q3 2025, Intel's total revenue reached $13.7 billion, marking a 3% year-over-year increase, which is the first year-over-year growth since Q1 2024. This signals a rebound in business activity, with AI applications benefiting the core x86 market [3][11]. - Intel's revenue exceeded market consensus by $515 million, indicating a stronger-than-expected rebound [3]. Business Segment Performance - Consumer Products Division: Revenue reached $8.5 billion, showing significant growth despite weak global consumer sentiment. The demand for Windows 11 upgrades and AI PCs contributed to this performance, although operating profit declined, suggesting a sacrifice in short-term profitability for market share expansion [6]. - Data Center Business: Revenue remained flat year-over-year, which is somewhat disappointing. However, operating profit margins surged over 1400 basis points, indicating significant internal improvements. A recent collaboration with NVIDIA to develop custom data center and PC products is expected to accelerate growth in this segment [6][7]. - Foundry Business: Revenue slightly declined year-over-year, but wafer production exceeded expectations, signaling positive developments. Operating losses have narrowed significantly, reflecting improvements in profitability [7]. Overall Financial Indicators - Intel's gross margin increased by 22 percentage points year-over-year, and operating margin improved from negative to 11.2%, up 29 percentage points, indicating successful transformation efforts [8]. - Adjusted EPS was $0.23, a remarkable improvement from a loss of $0.46 year-over-year, and exceeded market expectations by $0.22 [8]. - Cash and cash equivalents reached $11.141 billion at the end of Q3, up from $9.643 billion in Q2 and $8.785 billion year-over-year, reflecting significant liquidity improvement [8]. Future Guidance - Intel expects Q4 revenue to decline approximately 7% year-over-year, indicating potential challenges ahead. Gross margin is projected to shrink by 5.6 percentage points, and EPS is expected to decrease by $0.05 year-over-year [10]. - Despite signs of transformation, the company may face revenue fluctuations and profitability instability, which could limit valuation growth in the short term [11]. Potential Collaboration with Apple - On November 28, Intel's stock surged due to speculation that Apple may turn to Intel for its low-end M-series processors, aligning with the trend of U.S. government efforts to localize chip production [13]. - While the scale of this potential collaboration remains unclear, it could attract other major clients to Intel, enhancing its foundry business prospects [14][15].