BABA(US:BABA) 硬AI·2025-12-02 09:07Core Viewpoint - The Chinese internet sector is expected to see a remarkable growth of 36.5% in 2025, but the real competition will unfold in 2026 around artificial intelligence (AI) [2][3] Group 1: 2026 AI Competition - The competition in the AI sector will focus on three main themes: AI cloud infrastructure, AI chatbots, and AI applications [6][7] - Major players like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent are competing to capture user traffic through their AI chatbots, aiming to secure key monetization avenues in the AI era [3][7] Group 2: AI Cloud Infrastructure - Alibaba and Baidu are leading a capital race in AI cloud infrastructure, with Alibaba's capital expenditure reaching approximately 120 billion RMB over the past four quarters and planning to invest 380 billion RMB in the next three years [8] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while Baidu's AI cloud revenue also saw a 21% year-on-year increase, reaching 6.2 billion RMB [8] Group 3: AI Chatbot Competition - AI chatbots are defined as the "traffic entry point" in the AI era, with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent heavily investing in this user acquisition battle [11] - ByteDance's chatbot "Doubao" leads the Chinese market with 197 million monthly active users (MAU) as of October 2025 [11] Group 4: Vertical AI Applications - Companies in vertical sectors like Meituan, Ctrip, and Didi are training their proprietary AI agents using exclusive data to enhance user engagement and explore new monetization opportunities [16] - Ctrip's AI travel assistant "TripGenie" saw its user base grow by over 200% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [16] Group 5: Global Expansion of AI - Chinese AI applications are accelerating their global expansion, with ByteDance's products ranking among the top in global MAU [20] - As of November 2025, ByteDance's "Dola" and another Chinese product "DeepSeek" ranked fourth and fifth globally, with 47 million and 39 million MAU respectively [20] Group 6: Performance Review and Outlook - In Q3 2025, 27 out of 44 internet companies exceeded profit expectations, attributed to cost optimization and productivity gains from AI [26] - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from AI-driven efficiency improvements, with the average revenue per user (ARPU) rebounding to 41 RMB, a 13.3% year-on-year increase [27] - The tourism sector shows resilience, with tourism expenditure as a percentage of GDP at 4.3% in 2024, indicating growth potential [28]